Foreword / Charles E. Allen -- Preface -- About the authors -- Introduction -- How do i get started? -- Who are your clients? -- What are the key questions? -- What is the broader context for the analysis? -- How should I conceptualize my product? -- What is my analytic approach? -- Can collaboration contribute to a better answer? -- Where is the information I need? -- How do models help my analysis? -- What types of information are available? -- Can i trust the sources? -- How should I assess the reliability of internet information? -- What is my argument? -- Are my key assumptions well founded? -- Can I make my case? -- Did i consider alternative hypotheses? -- How do i deal with politicization? -- How might i be spectacularly wrong? -- How do I convey my message effectively? -- Is my argument persuasive? -- How should I portray probability, levels of confidence, and quantitative data? -- How can graphics support my analysis? -- How do I present my message in the most compelling way? -- How do I know when I am finished? -- Case studies -- Countering the iranian nuclear threat : stuxnet and its broader implications -- Puzzling food poisonings in Germany -- The end of the era of aircraft carriers -- Financial crises in the United States : chronic or avoidable? -- Yemen : an expanding security threat? -- Glossary of terms -- List of names -- Recommended readings -- Index.