Inflation dynamics in South Africa : the role of thresholds, exchange rate pass-through and inflation expectations on policy trade-offs için kapak resmi
Başlık:
Inflation dynamics in South Africa : the role of thresholds, exchange rate pass-through and inflation expectations on policy trade-offs
Yazar:
Ndou, Eliphas. author.
ISBN:
9783319467023

9783319467016
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Fiziksel Tanımlama:
XLVI, 525 pages ; 24 cm.
İçerik:
Preface; Acknowledgements; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; 1: Introduction; 1.1 Heightened Exchange Rate Volatility and the Persistent Negative Output Gap; 1.2 The Dilemma of Partial Accommodative Stance to Shocks and Role of Unanchored Inflation Expectations; 1.3 Is There a Debate Surrounding the Potency of Monetary Policy Effects Conditional on GDP Growth Regimes with Relevance in t...; 1.4 Policy Trade-off and Disinflation; 1.5 Does Transmission of Inflation Effects on Economic Growth Become Impacted by the Fiscal Policy Conditions?; 1.5.1 Inflation and Price Dispersion 1.6 Magnitude of Exchange Rate Changes and Volatility Persistence Shock1.7 Non-linear Changes in Feedthrough into Import Price and Consumer Price Inflation; 1.8 Inflation Expectation and Its Role in Labour Market Adjustment; 1.9 Updating of Inflation Expectations; 1.10 GDP Growth Threshold and the Role of Short-term Conditions Indicators in Policy Path Responses; References; Part I: Costs of Disinflation, Inflation Volatility and Policy Trade-offs; 2: The Ball Approach to Disinflation Episodes, Output Costs and Sacrifice Ratios in South Africa; 2.1 Introduction 2.2 What Is the Nature of the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth?2.3 What Are Sacrifice Ratios and Why Do They Matter?; 2.4 Ballś Trend and Actual Output Dynamics and the Role of Inflation Persistence; 2.5 Actual Output Relative to Trend Output During Disinflation Episodes; 2.6 Costs of Disinflation and Inflation Persistence During the Disinflation Periods; 2.7 Sacrifice Ratios Based on the Zhang and Hoffstetter Assumptions; 2.8 The Role of the Exchange Rate Depreciation, Food Inflation in Excess of 6 Per Cent and Inflation Expectations in the Trans... 2.9 Conclusion and Policy ImplicationsReferences; 3: The Output and Inflation Trade-off in South Africa; 3.1 Introduction; 3.2 What Does the Taylor Curve Capture?; 3.3 The Garch Methodology; 3.4 The Inflation-Output Volatility Trade-offs; 3.4.1 Does the Inclusion of the Period of Financial Crisis Impact the Results?; 3.4.2 Evidence of Taylor Curve Shifts; 3.5 The Role of Inflation Expectations on the Policy Trade-offs; 3.5.1 Asymmetry in Inflation Expectations Shock on the Policy Trade-off; 3.5.2 Do Demand and Supply Shocks Move the Inflation and Output Volatilities? 3.5.3 Persistent and Non-Persistent Demand and Supply Shock Effects3.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications; References; 4: Persistent Exchange Rate Volatility on the Taylor Curve; 4.1 Introduction; 4.2 The Role of the Exchange Rate in the Taylor Curve; 4.3 Conditional Inflation and Exchange Rate Volatilities; 4.3.1 How Did the Various Shocks Impact the Inflation and Exchange Rate Conditional Volatilities?; 4.3.2 Do the Various Rounds of US QE Matter?; 4.4 The Taylor Curve Effect of the Exchange Rate Volatility.
Özet:
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.
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Kitap EKOBKN0002562 339 NDO 2017
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