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Low for long? : causes and consequences of persistently low interest rates için kapak resmi
Başlık:
Low for long? : causes and consequences of persistently low interest rates
Yazar:
Bean, Charles R., 1953- author
ISBN:
9781907142949
Fiziksel Tanımlama:
xv, 106 pages : color illustrations ; 25 cm
Seri:
Geneva reports on the world economy ; 17
Genel Not:
"October 2015"--Title page verso
İçerik:
1. Introduction. Some key facts -- Historical context -- Summary -- Chapt. 1 Annex: Expected inflation and the UK real consol yield -- 2. Why have (safe) real interest rates fallen? A higher propensity to save -- A lower propensity to invest -- Risky versus safe assets and portfolio shifts -- Summing up -- 3. Lessons from Japan. A brief chronology -- From disinflation to deflation -- Escaping the deflationary trap -- Effects of low interest rates on the private sector -- Demography -- 4. Policies and prospects. Monetary policy -- Fianancial markets and financial stability -- Prospects -- Concluding remarks
Özet:
The 17th Geneva Report on the World Economy examines the causes of the unusually low interest rates seen in recent years, asks whether they are likely to persist, and explores the possible consequences. Regarding the causes, the report argues that demographic developments and Chinese financial integration have been important drivers, reinforced since the crisis by a reluctance to invest and a shift in investor preferences toward safe assets. But some of these forces are likely to reverse in the future, suggesting that the current period of unusually low interest rates is unlikely to persist indefinitely. The pace at which that reversal will happen remains highly uncertain, however, and dependent on longer-term policy choices. The return to historically more normal levels of interest rates may, consequently, be quite drawn out and policymakers need to be alert to the consequences. Aside from increasing the frequency with which monetary policies are constrained by the lower bound on policy rates, persistently low interest rates on safe assets also encourage the adoption of strategies to lever up returns, so heightening the risks to financial stability. While macro prudential policies represent the first line of defense against such risks, policymakers should be careful not to expect too much from them.
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Kitap EKOBKN0001217 332.82 BEA 2015
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