1 Introduction 1 (6) Reference 5 (2) 2 Theory 7 (22) 2.1 The "Old Decennial Cycle" and Its Theorizations 8 (3) 2.1.1 Industrial Crises 8 (2) 2.1.2 Classical Business Cycles 10 (1) 2.2 The Years of High Theory 11 (4) 2.2.1 Austrian Theory 11 (2) 2.2.2 The Keynesian Revolution 13 (2) 2.3 Keynesianism and Around 15 (5) 2.3.1 The Keynesian School 15 (2) 2.3.2 The Samuelson-Hicks Model 17 (2) 2.3.3 "Non-linear" Contributions of Goodwin and Allais 19 (1) 2.4 The Statistical and Econometric Approaches 20 (9) 2.4.1 The First Steps 20 (2) 2.4.2 The "Tinbergen Moment" 22 (2) 2.4.3 Towards Large Scale Models 24 (1) References 25 (4) 3 Empirics 29 (22) 3.1 Towards New Approaches of the Cycle 32 (7) 3.1.1 The Decomposition of the Neo-Classical Synthesis 32 (1) 3.1.2 Equilibrium Cycles 33 (2) 3.1.3 Unorthodox Theories: Minsky 35 (2) 3.1.4 Unorthodox Theories: Hayek 37 (2) 3.2 Long Cycles 39 (2) 3.2.1 From the Precursors 39 (1) 3.2.2 To the Schumpeterian Tradition 40 (1) 3.3 The Empirics of Business Cycle Analysis 41 (10) 3.3.1 What Is the Business Cycle? 41 (3) 3.3.2 Measuring and Dating the Business Cycle 44 (2) References 46 (5) 4 Dating 51 (18) 4.1 Methodology 52 (4) 4.1.1 Markov-Switching Models 52 (1) 4.1.2 Estimation 53 (2) 4.1.3 Testing for Nonlinearity 55 (1) 4.2 Dating the French Business Cycle 56 (5) 4.2.1 Data and Models 57 (1) 4.2.2 Estimation and Results (I) 58 (2) 4.2.3 Estimations and Results (II) 60 (1) 4.3 The Case of South Africa 61 (8) 4.3.1 Model and Data 62 (1) 4.3.2 Estimation and Tests 62 (1) 4.3.3 A Chronology of the Business Cycle 63 (1) 4.3.4 A Brief Comparison 64 (1) References 65 (4) 5 Forecasting 69 (16) 5.1 Chronology and Features of the German Cycle 70 (4) 5.1.1 BBQ Algorithm 70 (2) 5.1.2 Some Characteristics of the German Cycle 72 (2) 5.2 The Econometric Model 74 (5) 5.2.1 The Dynamic Probit 74 (2) 5.2.2 Empirical Model 76 (1) 5.2.3 In-Sample Prediction 77 (2) 5.3 Forecasting in Real Time 79 (6) 5.3.1 The Predicting Method 79 (1) 5.3.2 Forecasting the Recessions After 2005 80 (3) Annex I The Sequential Reduction Procedure 83 (1) References 83 (2) 6 Afterword 85 6.1 A Plea for a New Econometrics-Based Macroeconomics 85 (1) 6.2 The Standard Macroeconomic Model 86 (1) 6.3 A Critical Evaluation 87 (2) 6.4 The Turmoil of the 2007--2008 Crisis 89 (1) 6.5 Macroeconomics Otherwise 90 References 93