Cover -- Title -- Copyright -- Dedication -- Contents -- LIST OF FIGURES -- LIST OF TABLES -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITION -- PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION -- PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION -- 1. RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND THE RECONSTRUCTION OF MACROECONOMICS -- Behavior Changes with the Rules of the Game -- The Investment Decision -- Are Government Deficits Inflationary? -- General Implications of the Examples -- New Econometric Methods -- Historical and Cross-Country Analysis -- Implications for Policymakers -- 2. REAGANOMICS AND CREDIBILITY -- Dynamic Games -- An Economy as a Dynamic Game. Are Government Deficits Inflationary?Reaganomics and Credibility -- Conclusion -- 3. THE ENDS OF FOUR BIG INFLATIONS -- Introduction -- The Gold Standard -- Austria -- Hungary -- Poland -- Germany -- Czechoslovakia -- Conclusion -- Appendix -- 4. STOPPING MODERATE INFLATIONS: THE METHODS OF POINCARÉ AND THATCHER -- Introduction -- The ""Poincaré Miracle'' -- The British Experience -- Mrs. Thatcher's Plan -- The Outcome of the Plan So Far -- Overshooting the £M3 Target -- The Government Deficit -- North Sea Oil and the Pound Sterling -- Conclusion -- Second Thoughts -- Poincaré and Moreau -- Methods of Thatcher and Reagan. Where to Play Chicken5. SOME UNPLEASANT MONETARIST ARITHMETIC -- Introduction -- A Simple Monetarist Model -- The Cagan-Bresciani-Turroni Effect -- Conclusions and Qualifications -- Appendix 1 -- Appendix 2 -- Appendix 3 -- 6. INTERPRETING THE REAGAN DEFICITS -- Government Budget Balance -- Barro Tax Smoothing -- Wallace's Game of Chicken -- Conclusion -- Appendix -- Hall's Model -- Barro's Model -- 7. SPECULATIONS ABOUT THE SPECULATION AGAINST THE HONG KONG DOLLAR -- A Look at Hong Kong's Monetary System -- The Official Float Policy -- An Indeterminate Exchange Rate? -- A Timely Depreciation -- Hong Kong's Other Options -- Epilogue. 8. SIX ESSAYS IN PERSUASIONBack to Basics on Budgets -- Confrontations over Deficits -- An Open Letter to the Brazilian Finance Minister -- Letter to Another Brazilian Finance Minister -- The Economics Are Simple -- Credibility -- A Delicate Institutional Issue -- Advice -- Reasonable Doubt about the Real Plan -- An American History Lesson for Europe -- 9. MACROECONOMIC FEATURES OF THE FRENCH REVOLUTION -- Introduction -- Chronology of Events -- Macroeconomic Theories Coloring Our Observations -- Before the Revolution -- Even Absolute Monarchies Have Budget Constraints -- The British Experience -- Across the Channel. French Fiscal Backwardness or Optimality?Snapshot of the Old Regime Laws -- Offices -- Taxes -- Apology for the Old Regime -- Fiscal Pressures to Reform -- Sentiment for Copying Britain -- A Temptation Resisted -- Sustainability or Bad Choices? -- The Last Fiscal Crisis of the Old Regime -- The Search for a New Order -- Annus Mirabilis (1789) -- Some Adverse and Persistent Revenue Shocks -- Designing a New Tax System -- Birth of a Currency -- Rise and Fall of the Assignat -- A Real-Bills Regime (1790-92) -- War -- Terror (1793-94) -- Legal Restrictions -- Hyperinflation (1795-96) -- The Government's Response -- Default -- The Legacy.