Regional economic outlook. Western Hemisphere. Oct 15, Adjusting under pressure

Başlık:

Yazar:

International Monetary Fund

ISBN:

9781513575209

Fiziksel Tanımlama:

viii, 100 pages : color illustration, charts ; 28 cm.

Seri:

World economic and financial surveys.

İçerik:

Contents Preface v Executive Summary vii 1. The United States, Canada, and the World: Outlook, Risks, and Policies 1 Setback and Rebound 1 The United States: Recovery Regains Its Footing 4 Canada: Lower Oil Prices Weigh Heavily on the Economy 8 2. Outlook and Policy Challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean 15 Protracted Slowdown 15 Financially Integrated Economies 20 Other Commodity Exporters 28 Central America and the Dominican Republic 31 The Caribbean 34 Annex 2.1. Data Disclaimer 49 3. To Hike or Not to Hike: Is That an Option for Latin America? Assessing Monetary Policy Autonomy 51 Co-movement in Financial Conditions: A First Glance 51 From Global Financial Conditions to Domestic Interest Rates: Quantifying the Linkages 53 What Can Latin America Expect from U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization? 57 Conclusion and Policy Implications 60 Annex 3.1. Technical Details 62 4. Trade Integration in Latin America and the Caribbean: Hype, Hope, and Reality 65 Setting the Stage 65 Is LAC Undertrading? A More Formal Analysis 69 Heterogeneity in LAC 70 The Role of Value Chains and Regional Trade Agreements 71 Policy Takeaways 72 5. Advancing Financial Development in Latin America and the Caribbean 75 Measuring Financial Development 75 Financial Development: Where Does LAC Stand? 77 Financial Development and Macroeconomic Fundamentals 79 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution iv REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: WESTERN HEMISPHERE The Nexus between Finance, Stability, and Growth: What Is in Store for LAC? 79 Conclusions and Policy Implications 82 Annex 5.1. Sources and Data Processing 85 Abbreviations 89 Countries 89 Country Groups 90 Regions 90 References 91 New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department 97 Boxes 1.1 How Accommodative Is U.S. Monetary Policy? 12 2.1 Historical Perspective on the Deceleration of Real Economic Activity in LAC 37 2.2 Macroeconomic Fluctuations in the Caribbean: The Role of Oil Prices 39 2.3 Financial Integration in Latin America 41 2.4 Inequality and Commodity Booms in Latin America 44 3.1 Global Financial Conditions and Portfolio Flows to Latin America 61 5.1 Financial Inclusion: Latin America and the Caribbean 83

Özet:

Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent years in poverty reduction. Key risks, including an abrupt tightening of U.S. interest rates or a further slowdown in China, may disproportionately affect Latin America. Chapters in this report examine monetary policy in Latin America, including the region's exposure to global financial shocks; the role of value chains and regional trade agreements in fostering trade integration; and financial market development in the region. Economies in the Western Hemisphere are seeing a slowdown in growth. Countries with tight links to the U.S. should benefit from stronger U.S. growth.

Konu Başlığı:

Economic forecasting -- Latin America

Ekonomik tahminler -- Latin Amerika.

Economic forecasting -- Caribbean Area.

Ekonomik tahminler -- Karayib Bölgesi.

Economic forecasting -- North America

Ekonomik tahminler -- Kuzey Amerika.

Coğrafi Terim:

Latin America -- Economic conditions -- 21st century

Latin Amerika -- Ekonomik durumlar -- 21. yüzyıl.

Caribbean Area -- Economic conditions -- 21st century.

Karayib Bölgesi -- Ekonomik durumlar -- 21. yüzyıl.